Fed/GFLEC Financial Literacy Seminar Series

March 21, 2013

3:30 PM - 5:00 PM

Seminar II: Complexity as a Barrier to Annuitization: Do Consumers Know How to Value Annuities?

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Jeffrey Brown

William G. Karnes Professor of Finance, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

LOCATION

George Washington University School of Business
Duquès Hall, Room 652
2201 G Street NW (main entrance on 22nd Street between G and H Streets)

Bio: Jeffrey Brown

Jeffrey Robert Brown is the William G. Karnes Professor in the Department of Finance at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He is also the Director of the Center for Business and Public Policy in the College of Business. He serves as a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and as Associate Director of the NBER Retirement Research Center. Since 2009 he has served as a Trustee for TIAA, the operating company of TIAA-CREF. From October 2006 through September 2008, he served as a member of the Social Security Advisory Board. He served as a Senior Economist with the President’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2001 to 2002. He earned a Ph.D. in economics from MIT, a Masters in Public Policy from Harvard Kennedy School, and a B.A. from Miami University.


 

Abstract

This paper provides experimental evidence that individuals have difficulty valuing annuities, and this difficulty – rather than a preference for lump sums – can help explain observed low levels of annuity purchases. Although the median price at which people are willing to sell an annuity is close to median actuarial values, this masks notable heterogeneity in responses including substantial numbers of respondents whose responses are difficult to reconcile with optimizing behavior under any reasonable parameter assumptions. We also discover that people are willing to pay substantially less to buy a larger annuity, a result not due to liquidity constraints or endowment effects. Strikingly, we also learn that individual responses to the buy versus sell decisions are negatively correlated, an effect that is stronger for the less financially sophisticated. Our findings are consistent with boundedly rational consumers who adopt a “buy low, sell high” heuristic when faced with a complex trade-off. Moreover, at the margin, subjective valuations vary nearly one-for-one with actuarial values but are uncorrelated with utility-based measures designed to measure the insurance value of annuities. This supports the hypothesis that people use simplifying heuristics to think about annuities, rather than engaging in optimizing behavior. Results also underscore the difficulty of explaining the cross-sectional variation in annuity valuations using standard empirical models. Our findings raise doubt about whether most consumers can make optimal decisions about annuitization.